Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued: 08 January 2015
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK
January - June 2015
Oceanic indices suggest El Niño-like pattern during December 2014, while atmospheric features reflect El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral warm conditions.
The SSTA at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP) has reached borderline weak El Niño thresholds beginning in September-October-November season (SON 2014). Most computer models favour ENSO-neutral warm conditions to persist during the Dec-January-February (DJF) season. El Niño Watch continues.
January – March 2015
The period is the peak of the Northeast (NE) monsoon season, locally known as “Amihan”. Tropical cyclone activity is however at its minimum. Weather systems that may affect the country are the NE monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, trough of low pressure areas (LPAs), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), easterlies and one (1) to two (2) tropical cyclones that are likely to develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Cold surges are expected during the period.
For January-February-March season, rainfall conditions will likely be way below to below normal over most parts of the country while patches of near normal rainfall maybe observed in Sorsogon, Masbate, most parts of Central Visayas and CARAGA Region. Gradual weakening of the NE monsoon may begin during the early part of March.
April to June 2015
The period covers the gradual shift of the season from NE monsoon to Southwest (SW) monsoon. The weather systems that may influence the country are the ridge of high pressure area (HPA), ITCZ, LPAs and one (1) to three (3) tropical cyclones. During the period, the mean track of tropical cyclone is located from southern Luzon to central Visayas areas, extending towards the West Philippine Sea.
During April-May-June season, generally near to above normal rainfall condition will likely to occur in most parts of the country, except in small areas in Cagayan and Isabela, including provinces of Samar, Southern Leyte, Davao Oriental, Agusan del Norte and Surigao.
Normal onset of the rainy season (latter part of May or early part of June) is expected in areas under climate Type I.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor these conditions and regular updates and advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of ENSO variability. For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone numbers 434-0955 or 435-1675.
VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D.
SEASONAL FORECAST MAPS / MATRICES
Notes: Seasonal Outlook was based from forecasts made in January 2015. Monthly updates are being made (please refer to Monthly Weather Situation and Outlook issued monthly. Available at this link: http://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate-agromet/climate-prediction