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Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 18 January 2017
Gale Warning # 8
For: STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON.

Gale Warning in PDF file



Weather Advisory
ISSUED AT: 11:00 AM 18 January 2017
FOR:Tail-end of a cold front 




Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 18 January  2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued 18 January 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 17 January 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

La Niña-like conditions continue
Issued: 05 January 2017
updates shall be issued as appropriate.

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (January - June 2017) 
UPDATED: 15 December 2016 


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 16 December 2016
Valid for: January - June 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 18,2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, THURSDAY, JANUARY 19,2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-018


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DECADE NO. 2  JANUARY 11- 20, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

The weather systems that will affect the whole country are northeast monsoon, LPA (previously Tropical Depression Auring) and tropical cyclone.

During the early days of the ten-day forecast, Northern Luzon will experience light rains while the cloudiness associated with the LPA will continue to bring rains and thunderstorms over Visayas, CALABARZON, and the regions of Bicol and MIMAROPA. Gradual improvement of weather over these areas is expected afterwards. As the LPA (formerly TD Auring) moves outside the Philippine Area of Resposibility (PAR), another LPA at the east of the country is predicted to enter PAR. This LPA may develop into a tropical cyclone at the midst of the forecast period but will not have direct effect in the country. It will move in a north northwest direction before going in a north northeast track. Light rains are expected over the eastern section of Luzon and Visayas as the northeasterly wind flow start to strengthen again.  Southern Luzon and Visayas are expected to have rains with thunderstorms at the midst of the forecast period while the rest of Luzon will have light rains. The rest of the country will have good weather. During the last part of the decade, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms will prevail over the whole archipelago.

Gradual decrease of temperature is expected over Northern and Central Luzon at the midst of the forecast period. This condition will continue throughout the remaining days of the decade.

Moderate to strong winds will prevail over Luzon while light to moderate winds will blow over Mindanao throughout the decade. During the first half of the forecast period, Visayas will have light to moderate winds. Visayas will have moderate to strong winds during the remaining days of the ten-day period.

Visayas and Mindanao will have slight to moderate seas during the first half of the decade. Afterwards, the coastal waters over Visayas will be moderate to rough while Mindanao will have slight to moderate seas. The seaboards over Luzon will be moderate to rough throughout the ten-day period.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  15 July 2016
FOR JULY TO DECEMBER 2016
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issued 01 January 2017
Planet Conjuction, Famous Equilateral triangle in the sky and Annual Quadrantid meteor shower...




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Issued 15 July 2016
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division

                                        SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK
                                             JULY – DECEMBER 2016


Overview:

The 2015-2016 strong El Niño event had ended in June. Both oceanic and atmospheric indicators have returned to neutral values which suggest that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral condition is now present in the tropical Pacific.

Meanwhile, a La Niña is favored to develop by August-September-October 2016 season, as the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP) continue to exhibit cooler than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A La Niña is characterized by a persistent cooler than -0.5°C sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the CEEP.

July to September 2016

The season favors a shift from ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions as predicted by the majority of climate models.

The period is the peak of the Southwest (SW) monsoon season or “Habagat” and tropical cyclone activity is likewise at its maximum. Rain-causing weather systems such as thunderstorms, inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), low pressure areas (LPAs), tropical cyclones and enhanced SW monsoon will dominate the season bringing widespread and heavy rainfall in many places of the country. Five (5) to eleven (11) tropical cyclones are likely to develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Most tropical cyclones generally move in westward and northwestward directions. Monsoon breaks are likely to occur during the period.

Average rainfall condition are predicted to be above normal in most parts of northern and central Luzon and some areas in Visayas and Mindanao while near normal for the rest of the country. Gradual recession of rains, associated with the SW monsoon, is expected during the latter part of September up to early October.

October to December 2016

A weak La Nina will be likely during the season with around 55-60% chance that it will continue until Dec-Jan-Feb 2016-2017 season.

The period covers the first half of the Northeast (NE) monsoon. Weather systems likely to influence the country are the tail end of the cold front, ITCZ, easterly wave, ridge of high pressure area (HPA), the easterlies and four (4) to nine (9) tropical cyclone occurrences. Tropical cyclones originating from northwestern Pacific Ocean tend to move in a westerly direction during the season; their most likely tracks are expected between Visayas and Central Luzon with secondary tracks over Northern Mindanao.

For October-November-December season, generally the entire Philippines will likely receive above normal rainfall except for some patches of near normal rainfall condition. Due to this surplus in rainfall, several areas in the country are expected to experience prolonged wet conditions that may cause floodings and rain-induced landslides.

Slightly warmer than average temperatures are likely to be felt during the season, however, cold surges may still be experienced especially during the latter part of December.

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor these climate conditions and regular updates and advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this phenomenon. For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone numbers 434-0955 or 435-1675.


        (signed)

VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D.
Acting Administrator


 
Notes: Seasonal Outlook was based from forecasts made in July 2016. Monthly updates are being made (please refer to Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook issued monthly).

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