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Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 18 January 2017
Gale Warning # 8
For: STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON.

Gale Warning in PDF file



Weather Advisory
ISSUED AT: 11:00 AM 18 January 2017
FOR:Tail-end of a cold front 




Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 18 January  2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued 18 January 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 17 January 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

La Niña-like conditions continue
Issued: 05 January 2017
updates shall be issued as appropriate.

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (January - June 2017) 
UPDATED: 15 December 2016 


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 16 December 2016
Valid for: January - June 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 18,2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, THURSDAY, JANUARY 19,2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-018


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DECADE NO. 2  JANUARY 11- 20, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

The weather systems that will affect the whole country are northeast monsoon, LPA (previously Tropical Depression Auring) and tropical cyclone.

During the early days of the ten-day forecast, Northern Luzon will experience light rains while the cloudiness associated with the LPA will continue to bring rains and thunderstorms over Visayas, CALABARZON, and the regions of Bicol and MIMAROPA. Gradual improvement of weather over these areas is expected afterwards. As the LPA (formerly TD Auring) moves outside the Philippine Area of Resposibility (PAR), another LPA at the east of the country is predicted to enter PAR. This LPA may develop into a tropical cyclone at the midst of the forecast period but will not have direct effect in the country. It will move in a north northwest direction before going in a north northeast track. Light rains are expected over the eastern section of Luzon and Visayas as the northeasterly wind flow start to strengthen again.  Southern Luzon and Visayas are expected to have rains with thunderstorms at the midst of the forecast period while the rest of Luzon will have light rains. The rest of the country will have good weather. During the last part of the decade, partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms will prevail over the whole archipelago.

Gradual decrease of temperature is expected over Northern and Central Luzon at the midst of the forecast period. This condition will continue throughout the remaining days of the decade.

Moderate to strong winds will prevail over Luzon while light to moderate winds will blow over Mindanao throughout the decade. During the first half of the forecast period, Visayas will have light to moderate winds. Visayas will have moderate to strong winds during the remaining days of the ten-day period.

Visayas and Mindanao will have slight to moderate seas during the first half of the decade. Afterwards, the coastal waters over Visayas will be moderate to rough while Mindanao will have slight to moderate seas. The seaboards over Luzon will be moderate to rough throughout the ten-day period.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  15 July 2016
FOR JULY TO DECEMBER 2016
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issued 01 January 2017
Planet Conjuction, Famous Equilateral triangle in the sky and Annual Quadrantid meteor shower...




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Overview

Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b), changes in climate patterns are projected to have a number of impacts including possible water shortages, decreased agricultural production, and food insecurity. With these considerations, a joint project undertaking was forged between the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the FAO-AMICAF (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), and University of Cantabria in Spain. The project aims to assess vulnerability of households to food insecurity through the use of a tool called MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change). Ultimately, climate information generated from the project can be used to provide relevant and updated climate information for national socioeconomic policy making.

The work plan was implemented through a series of workflow wherein PAGASA undertook the first step of the work plan which is the climate scenario downscaling. Global climate models (GCMs) were statistically downscaled at station level under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). These GCMs are BCM2, CNCM3, and MPEH5.

Results of climate projections are provided in two time period: historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2011-2040) using two Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1B (medium-range) and A2 (high-range). SRES are based on projected greenhouse gases emissions in future years.

There are three seasonal variables available for download : precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Season is defined as an average of three-month values: DJF (December-January-February), MAM (March, April, May), JJA (June, July, August), and SON (September-October-November).

A technical note to you understand our products is also available for download via this link .

NOTE: Kindly refer to this article for citation of methodology.

References

(2014). Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF): Project Terminal Report. Submitted to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Country Office in the Philippines. Quezon City: DOST-PAGASA.

Basconcillo, J., A. Lucero, A. Solis, R. Sandoval, Jr., E. Bautista, T. Koizumi, and H. Kanamaru, 2016: Statistically downscaled projected changes in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Cagayan Valley, Philippines. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan94A, 151-164.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Lucero, A., Basconcillo, J., Solis, A., Kanamaru, H., Bautista, E., Sandoval, R., Hilario, S., Juanillo, E., (2014). Recent Projected Changes (2011-2040) in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in the Philippines. Paper presented at the 3rd National Climate Conference. Manila, Philippines.

Manzanas, R., Brands, S., San-Martin, D., Lucero, A., Limbo, C., Gutierrez, J. (2015) Statistical Downscaling in the Tropics is Sensitive to Reanalysis Choice. Journal of Climate., Vol. 28, 4171-4184




payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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