LA NIÑA ADVISORY #1
04 December 2025
PRESS RELEASE
DOST-PAGASA S&T Media Service
Quezon City
04 December 2025
LA NIÑA ADVISORY #1
Short-lived La Niña is present in the tropical Pacific
Recent oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate that La Niña has developed in the tropical Pacific. Since September 2025, the sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific started to decrease and further declined in November, reaching a weak La Niña threshold. Based on the latest forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2026.
Weak La Niña conditions exist if a one-month sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) of -0.5°C or less is observed and an expectation that the 3-month SSTA (Oceanic Niño Index) of -0.5°C or less will be met (i.e., September-October-November (SON), November-December-January (NDJ)). It is likely that this La Niña will continue at least until the December 2025 to February 2026 season as suggested by several climate models.
La Niña is usually associated with above-normal rainfall conditions across most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and early months of the following year.
With this development, higher chances of above-normal rainfall in the December 2025 to February 2026 season are expected, which may cause floods, flashfloods, and rain-induced landslides. Furthermore, an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the period is likely.
For more information, please contact the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) of DOST-PAGASA at telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com.
Original Signed:
NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO, Ph.D.
Administrator