EL NIÑO WATCH
25 March 2026
PRESS STATEMENT
DOST-PAGASA S & T Media Service
Quezon City, 25 March 2026
DOST-PAGASA continues to monitor the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific. Following the end of the recent La Niña event on 09 March 2026, ENSO-neutral prevails and is most likely to persist until the June-July-August 2026 season. However, model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of El Niño conditions as early as the July-August-September (JAS) season of 2026.
An El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO and is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Based on the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System, when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 55% or more within the next six months, an El Niño Watch is issued.
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country. However, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest Monsoon Season (Habagat) may also be experienced over the western part of the country.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.
For more information, please call the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com.
Original Signed:
Original Signed:
NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO, Ph.D.
Administrator