PRESS STATEMENT
DOST-PAGASA S & T Media Service
Quezon City, 22 April 2026
EL NIÑO ALERT
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Neutral prevails over the Tropical Pacific. However, most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 79% chance of El Niño emerging in June-July-August (JJA) 2026 season and is likely to persist until early 2027. With this development, the DOST-PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Alert.
El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO and is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Philippine Sea and warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Based on the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System, when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 70% or more within the next 2 to 3 months, an El Niño Alert is issued.
During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country. However, above-normal rainfall conditions may also be experienced over the western section of the country during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impacts of developing El Niño.
For more information, please call the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS), Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone number (02) 8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921 or through email: pagasa.climps@gmail.com.
Original Signed:
Originally Signed:
Original Signed:
NATHANIEL T. SERVANDO, Ph.D.
Administrator
Department of Science and Technology
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
Astronomical Services Administration
Philippine Standard Time
07:46:41 AM
12 May 2026