PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: July 27, 2025

Week Validity: July 28 - August 03, 2025

Increase in rainfall of 80-100mm is expected over most parts of Ilocos Region, Abra and Benguet while 80-100mm rainfall deficit is likely over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Ilocos Region and Central Luzon (Except Aurora) and the western section of CAR;

•Moderate to high over Central Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Mindanao;

•Low over Visayas.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Ilocos Region, Abra, Zambales, and Bataan;

•Moderate to high over NCR, the western section of CAR, and the rest of Central Luzon (except for Aurora);

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over the western section of Ilocos Region;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac and Nueva Ecija;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over most of Ilocos region and the western part of Abra and Benguet;

•Low to moderate over Pangasinan and Zambales;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over most the westernmost part of Ilocos region and Abra;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: July 27, 2025

Week Validity: July 28 - August 03, 2025

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: July 27, 2025

Week Validity: July 28 - August 03, 2025

Enhance SW Monsoon will likely affect the Western section of Luzon. Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: July 27, 2025

Week Validity: August 04 - 10, 2025

Rainfall deficit 40-100mm is expected over most parts Luzon and Visayas while 20 – 60mm increase in rainfall is likely over Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most part of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Luzon and Visayas.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over Luzon and Visayas.

•

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low to moderate across the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate across the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low to moderate across the country.

•

Initial Condition: July 27, 2025

Week Validity: August 04 - 10, 2025

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: July 27, 2025

Week Validity: August 04 - 10, 2025

Weak SW Monsoon will likely affect the western sections of Luzon. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: July 18-24, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Masbate, Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in in some areas in extreme northern Luzon, Isabela, northern Samar, Zamboanga Peninsula, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and western Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 25-31, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and eastern Visayas while Palawan, the rest of Visayas, and most of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Bukidnon where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: Aug 1-14, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces, and most parts of Mindanao while Mindoro, northern Palawan and the rest Visayas will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, northern Samar, and Leyte provinces while Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, the rest of Visayas and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 17, 2025

Week Validity: July 18-26, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while Masbate, Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in isome areas in extreme northern Luzon, Isabela, Camarines Sur, Albay, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Surigao del Sur where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Bicol Region, Marinduque, and most parts of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

GEFS Archive