PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: April 19, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 20-26, 2026

Precipitation Anomaly

•10--70mm Rainfall deficit is expected across the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•Moderate to high over most of CAR, portions of Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley, Zamboanga Peninsula, Lanao provinces, and portions of Bukidnon, Maguindanao del Norte and North Cotabato

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50 mm

•Moderate to high over portions of CAR and Nueva Vizcaya;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100 mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: April 19, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 20-26, 2026

•Slightly warmer-than-average air surface temperature in Isabela, Cagayan, Bulacan, NCR, Cavite, Rizal, Batangas, and most of Mindanao;

•Cooler-than-average air temperature over portions of Ilocos Region, portions of CAR, and Zambales;

•Average air surface temperature over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: April 19, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 20-26, 2026

Easterlies affecting most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: April 19, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 27- May 03, 2026

Precipitation Anomaly

•10-50mm Rainfall deficit is expected across the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•Moderate to high over most of Northern Luzon, Eastern Visayas and most of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50 mm

•Moderate to high over Bukidnon, Lanao provinces, Zamboanga del Norte and Zamboanga del Sur and SOCCSKARGEN;

•Low to moderate over portions of CAR and the rest of Mindanao,

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country

Initial Condition: April 19, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 27- May 03, 2026

Slightly warmer- to warmer-than-average air surface temperature is expected over most of the country.

Initial Condition: April 19, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 27- May 03, 2026

Easterlies will likely affect most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 18, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 19-25, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern parts of Ilocos Region & CAR, some areas in Pangasinan and southern Luzon, , western Visayas, Cebu, and western parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and Central Luzon, CALABAR, Samar provinces, and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 18, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 26- May 02, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Mindanao.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, and some areas in Zamboanga Peninsula & Caraga Region while southern parts of Bicol Region, Mindoro, Palawan, most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon while southern parts of Bicol Region & Palawan, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 18, 2026

Week Validity: May 03-16, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while La Union, Pangasinan, southern Palawan, and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and southern Luzon, western Visayas and northern Samar while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 18, 2026

Week Validity: Apr 19-27, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern parts of Ilocos Region & CAR, Western & Central Visayas, South Cotabato, Davao Occ. and Sarangani while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, South Cotabato, Davao Occ. and Sarangani will likely have above normal rainfall.