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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: May 27, 2025
Week Validity: May 28- Jun 03, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 60-100mm is expected in western parts of northern and central Luzon; 10-40mm for the rest of northern and central Luzon while 10-50mm rainfall deficit is expected for the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: May 27, 2025
Week Validity: May 28- Jun 03, 2025
Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced over the western section of Northern and Central Luzon while slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced for the rest of the country
Initial Condition: May 27, 2025
Week Validity: May 28- Jun 03, 2025
Southwest windflow affecting Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 27, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 04-10, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm is expected in most parts of Luzon while 10-40mm rainfall deficit is expected in Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: May 27, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 04-10, 2025
Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be over Ilocos Region and Central Luzon while slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced for the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: May 27, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 04-10, 2025
Southwest windflow affecting Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting Mindanao during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2025
Week Validity: May 23-29, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Visayas, and some areas in Caraga Region while the rest of Luzon and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, southern parts of CAR, Central Luzon, Bicol Region and Cebu where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, southern parts of CAR, Central Luzon, Bicol Region and Cebu where above normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2025
Week Validity: May 30- Jun 05, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of CAR, Cagayan, Isabela, La Union, western parts of central Luzon, some areas in Mindoro, Palawan, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao while northern Mindanao, and the rest of Luzon will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Bicol Region, Leyte provinces, and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas and northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 06-19, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of above normal rainfall in Luzon.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, western parts of central Luzon, Samar provinces, some areas in Bicol Region, Visayas, and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, some areas in Bicol Region, Visayas, and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2025
Week Validity: May 23-31, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and southern Luzon, Visayas, and some areas in Caraga Region while the rest of Luzon and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, Cebu, and Samar provinces will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in Palawan, Quezon, Pampanga and NCR, most parts of northern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely have above normal rainfall.