PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: Jul 07, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 07-13, 2025

Rainfall deficit of 20-90mm is expected in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while 20-60mm increase of rainfall in Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most of Ilocos Region, CAR, Central Luzon, and Mindanao.

•Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Ilocos Region, Zambales, Tarlac and the south-central part of Bukidnon;

•Moderate to high over CAR, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Central Luzon, NCR, Cavite, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan and most of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over most of Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, northern Palawan and Bukidnon;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Central Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over Ilocos Region and Zambales;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country

Initial Condition: Jul 07, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 07-13, 2025

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while near average surface air temperature is expected in Mindanao.

Initial Condition: Jul 07, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 07-13, 2025

SW Monsoon affecting the western section Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country

Initial Condition: Jul 07, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 20-80mm is expected in most parts of western Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, while rainfall deficit of 10-30mm is expected for the rest of Luzon and northeastern Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon, and Mindanao.

•Moderate to high over Visayas.

•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over most of Luzon, western section of Visayas and most of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Eastern Mindanao;

•

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over the western parts of Luzon, Albay and Sorsogon;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over most of Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low to moderate over Ilocos Region, CAR and Central Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country

Initial Condition: Jul 07, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

Near average to slightly warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: Jul 07, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

SW Monsoon affecting the western section of the country. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 29, 2025

Week Validity: Jun 30- July 06, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of northern and central Luzon, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Samar provinces will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of northern and central Luzon and Palawan, while the rest of Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of northern and central Luzon, Mindoro, and Palawan, while the rest of Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 29, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 07-13, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao while some areas in southern Luzon, Samar provinces and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas (except with some patches of below normal rainfall) while Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 29, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-27, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Ilocos Region, northern part of CAR and Cagayan Valley, some areas in southern Luzon, eastern Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and Visayas and northeastern part of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of central and southern Luzon, Samar provinces, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, most parts of Visayas, Bukidnon and some areas in northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of central and southern Luzon, and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: June 29, 2025

Week Validity: Jun 30-July 08, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except in Bicol Region where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except in Mindoro, Samar provinces, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.