PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: January 22, 2026

Week Validity: January 23 - 29, 2025

Rainfall deficit of 20-40mm is expected in most parts of Luzon while Increase in rainfall of 20-60mm is more likely in Visayas, and most of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over eastern parts of Cagayan and Isabela, Polilio Island, Eastern Visayas, and most of Mindanao.

•Moderate to high over the rest of Batanes, Quezon, Bicol region, the rest of Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and BASULTA.

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over the Eastern Visayas, and the eastern section of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the easternmost section of Cagayan and Isabela, the southeastern part of Bicol, Aklan, Capiz, Central Visayas, and Northern Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Eastern Visayas, Dinagat province, and Surigao del Norte;

•Low to moderate over Bicol Region and the rest of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over Eastern Visayas and Caraga;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: January 22, 2026

Week Validity: January 23 - 29, 2025

Slightly cooler to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in Luzon, and Visayas, while Mindanao will likely have near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature.

Initial Condition: January 22, 2026

Week Validity: January 23 - 29, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Luzon and Visayas. While Easterlies are expected to affect the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: January 22, 2026

Week Validity: January 30 - February 05, 2026

Increase in rainfall of 10-30mm rainfall is expected over most parts of the country; 40-70mm increase in Samar provinces, Mis Or., and Caraga Region.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over eastern part of Cagayan, Isabela, Polilio Island, Bicol region, Aklan, Capiz, Eastern Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao.

•Moderate to high over the rest of eastern Luzon, most of MIMAROPA, and the rest of Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over Bicol Region, most of Eastern Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate over Sorsogon, Catanduanes, Samar Provinces, Dinagat province, and Surigao del Norte;

•Low over the rest of the country

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country

Initial Condition: January 22, 2026

Week Validity: January 30 - February 05, 2026

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: January 22, 2026

Week Validity: January 30 - February 05, 2026

Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Extreme Northern Luzon. Easterlies are expected to affect the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 21, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 22-28, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas, and northern and eastern Mindanao while Mindoro, Palawan, and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, Pangasinan, Zambales, Tarlac, Bicol Region, eastern and central Visayas, Panay Island and some areas in eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, Bicol Region, some areas in central and southern Luzon, eastern and central Visayas, central part of Panay Island and Zamboanga Peninsula and central Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 21, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 29- Feb 04, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon and most parts of Visayas will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Oriental, and eastern Mindanao while some areas in northern Luzon, Marinduque, and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, , Marinduque, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Oriental, and eastern Mindanao while some areas in northern Luzon and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 21, 2025

Week Validity: Feb 05-18, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern and southern Luzon, western and central Visayas, and northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, Bicol Region, western Visayas, southern Cebu, and northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, Bicol Region, western Visayas, southern Cebu, and northern & western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 21, 2025

Week Validity: Jan 22-30, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Mindoro, Samar provinces, and some areas in Palawan and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, Leyte provinces, Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in extreme northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Samar provinces, Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region where below normal rainfall is expected.